Washington’s frustration over Israel’s March 8 strike on Iran’s Shahran oil depot in northwest Tehran – a crucial part of the Islamic Republic’s military-linked infrastructure – should clarify that Epic Fury and Roaring Lion are actually two separate military campaigns driven by different sets of interests.
Israel is fighting a regional war against an enemy of relatively equal power that has not only called for the Jewish state’s destruction but has actually invested significant resources towards this goal.
In addition to its uranium enrichment and long-range missile programs, Iran had surrounded Israel with a proxy “ring of fire” network.
Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud) has devoted decades of his political career to thwarting Iran’s nuclear ambitions and has spent the last two and a half years dismantling its proxy network in the region.
Even the sectors of the Israeli public that oppose Netanyahu and seek to replace him as prime minister support the Roaring Lion campaign because they appreciate that the Iranian regime genuinely aspires to destroy the State of Israel.
United States President Donald Trump’s Epic Fury campaign is a different war entirely. It’s about a declining empire’s need to control the global energy market and intimidate the rival nation it perceives as its principle rising competitor – the People’s Republic of China.
President Trump has made clear his disdain for the institutions of American soft power that get in the way of his naked imperialist style. While he’s no more of a glorified mob boss than any of his predecessors, he makes no effort to hide his gangster nature behind the liberal mask typically worn by American leaders.
But unlike most previous US presidents, Trump should be considered a criminal genius – a real life Lex Luthor. And like any gang boss (or jungle animal) with street smarts worth his life, Trump understands the value of projecting power through making an example of Iran.
Trump’s war essentially began when his warning not to harm protestors was ignored by the Iranian regime.
Trump obviously couldn’t care less about the Iranian demonstrators brutally beaten and murdered by the Islamic Republic’s security forces. But still he went to war for the same reason any gangster is forced to take action when publicly disrespected by an ostensibly weaker party.
Operation Epic Fury should be understood within the context of gangland politics – a showcase of the consequences for a “lesser power” that steps out of line. It’s a demonstration of Trump’s determination to maintain US global hegemony and a warning to the world that Uncle Sam is still the most powerful animal in the jungle even if the post-World War II liberal world order – Washington’s soft power means of imposing dominance – is coming apart.
From this perspective, Iran’s humiliation must be visible for it to matter.
This is especially critical for Trump following the failure of his tariffs to put the international community back in line and after European leaders began to push back against his overt gangsterism.
Trump’s strategic calculus therefore made Epic Fury necessary prior to the summit with China as a demonstration of power – to show that Washington means business. Nowhere has that been more apparent than in the American campaign’s focus on destroying Iran’s navy and asserting US control over the Strait of Hormuz – the chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies.
From Trump’s perspective, the campaign can only end when either the president determines that the Islamic Republic has remembered its place or when the US thoroughly dominates the Strait of Hormuz.
What Trump hasn’t considered is the cleverness and preparedness of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps.
The Islamic regime understands the Americans and has likely spent years planning for this scenario. It would therefore make sense to assume that at least most Iranian actions in this war have been deliberate and designed to ensnare the Americans in an escalation trap that would lock the empire into a prolonged and difficult-to-exit ground war.
The false sense of control created by a reliance on “smart bombs” and precision airstrikes, combined with a need to dominate the Strait of Hormuz in order to secure US control over the oil market, can easily lure the empire into a massive strategic failure that would accelerate shifts in global power and significantly degrade Washington’s influence in West Asia.
When it comes to Israel, by contrast, the IRGC is fighting a complete fantasy. The Iranians insist on seeing the State of Israel as a settler-colonial outpost of Western civilization (precisely what Washington wants Israel to be) and – like many of the actors in its proxy network – has developed a strategy based on this misconception.
This anti-colonial strategy can only backfire against the Iranian regime so long as Jerusalem remains focused on Jewish national interests and avoids being dragged into Trump’s imperialist war.
This could be challenging for many of Jerusalem’s political and military decision makers that see Israeli security and success as directly linked to a strong relationship with the United States. At a time when the trajectory of both major American political parties appears to be away from a close relationship with Jerusalem, the fantasy that Israel and the US are fighting the same war together has offered some illusory comfort.
As the IRGC attempts to lure Trump into a ground incursion to gain control over the Strait of Hormuz, it’s crucial to challenge the prevalent assumption in Israel’s geopolitical and military calculus that a stronger connection to the United States and its war aims increases Israel’s power and regional standing.
Jerusalem must distinguish between Roaring Lion and Epic Fury in order to clearly define the real Jewish interest in this war and to protect Israel from suffering a cost for Trump’s gangster adventurism.
