Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s ruling Likud party is fighting for the survival of its fragile coalition, as the nation continues to be polarized by the government’s ineffective handling of the coronavirus.
The most urgent current threat to the government’s stability actually comes from Defense Minister Benny Gantz’s Blue & White faction, a senior partner in the coalition. Likud and the disintegrating Blue & White party, which was initially created as a coalition of factions to oust Netanyahu from office, have been sparring over the passage of a national budget.
Foreign Minister Gabi Ashkenazi (Blue & White), told Galei Tzahal radio Thursday morning that he supports the establishment of a commission of inquiry into case 3000 (the “Submarine Affair” accusing Netanyahu of buying allegedly unnecessary submarines and other ships to skim profits from each purchase), noting that Gantz also supports the creation of such a commission.
Later on Thursday, Gantz himself told Ynet that “the subject of the submarines is serious, it deserves to be investigated.”
“What can be done within the defense system is limited to what can be done within the defense system,” he added.
“Nevertheless, I am familiar with the section that allows me to set up an investigation within the defense ministry.”
Member of Knesset Shlomo Karhi (Likud) tweeted in defense of the prime minister, accusing Blue & White of trying to deceive the public and divert its attention from more serious issues.
“As it appears more and more likely that Gantz, Ashkenazi and the attorney-general will come under investigation themselves, they increase their efforts to distort events and deceive the public,” he wrote on Twitter.
“However, the decay and corruption in the judiciary will not remain concealed for much longer.”
The Likud party also released an official statement in response to Blue & White’s attacks.
Attorney-General Aviḥai Mandelblit did indeed announce Thursday night that he would adopt the recommendations of the police and the State Attorney’s Office and that no investigation will be opened against Netanyahu in the Submarine Affair.
“Despite the doubts – there is no basis for a criminal investigation,” he said in a statement.
But Blue & White’s attacks on the prime minister from within the government aren’t the only reason to expect another election cycle in the near future.
The coalition survived a no confidence motion on Monday, voted down in the Knesset plenum by 53 to 30 votes. But what made this motion noteworthy is that it was supported by opposition lawmakers from across Israel’s political spectrum and highlighted a growing threat to Netanyahu from the national camp.
Initiated by Yair Lapid’s Liberal Zionist Yesh Atid faction, the no confidence motion received support from the Palestinian Joint List, but also from Yamina’s Naftali Bennett and Matan Kahana.
The Likud was fast to attack Bennett and Yamina, which has been soaring in recent polls at the ruling party’s expense.
“Bennett decided this evening to finally quit the nationalist bloc and recommend Yair Lapid [for prime minister],” Likud said in a statement Monday night.
Yamina quickly responded that Bennett and Kahana had voted to topple Netanyahu’s failed government, not to support Lapid.
“Every novice knows that there was no chance of crowning Lapid as prime minister,” Yamina said in a statement.
“We suggest that Likud Knesset members deal with eradicating the coronavirus and restoring the livelihood [of Israelis] and not more third-rate spin.”
It’s clear from the Likud’s desperate attacks on Yamina that Netanyahu is feeling threatened by Bennett’s dramatic rise in the polls. But it’s also clear that Bennett, who has a history of falling short of what surveys predict on election day, might be growing restless. Polls are showing that he’s highly popular at the moment and he likely feels pressure to initiate elections before that popularity has a chance to wane.
While calling for new elections during a national crisis would normally portray a politician as irresponsible, the current perception of Netanyahu as hopelessly incapable of handling the coronavirus while fending off indictments and highly publicized protests aimed at ending his career has created an atmosphere in which Bennett can get away with trying to capitalize on his current popularity surge.
But all actors seeking to challenge Netanyahu, regardless of their specific interests in taking down the current coalition, should factor in the possible formation of new parties to destabilize the political map in the event of new elections.
Following the absorption of Blue & White into the Likud-led coalition, reports have emerged that a new party is being created.
Israel’s Channel 12 reported last Monday that Tel Aviv Mayor Ron Ḥuldai and former IDF Chief of Staff Gadi Eisenkot are planning a to establish a new Liberal Zionist party for Israel’s next election cycle that would have broader appeal to the public than Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid.
The former general currently works for a number of think tanks and has denied reports that he plans to enter Knesset with a new party.
Ḥuldai has also issued denials.
“All the news yesterday about Eisenkot is nonsense,” he told reporters last Tuesday.
“When there is news I will let you know.”
Since becoming mayor in 1998, Ḥuldai has spent the last two decades transforming Tel Aviv into a city for the ultra-rich.
In May, he said he would launch a Knesset bid if another election were to be held in the near future.
A new political party led by Ḥuldai and Eisenkot would be little more than another attempt to sell 1950s Israel to the public. Like Blue & White during the past three elections, this new party would attempt to combine military credentials with a strong pro-West socio-political agenda.
But while rumors of this new party’s formation are likely at least partially responsible for Gantz’s recent acts of rebellion against Netanyahu, Ḥuldai and Eisenkot would likely only be able to draw voters away from Blue & White, Yesh Atid and potentially also Meretz.
The real electoral threat to Netanyahu remains Yamina, which means that Netanyahu will likely turn up the volume on his nationalist rhetoric and the full power of the Likud’s political machine will be employed to ensure Bennett once again falls far short of what polls predict.
