Member of Knesset Benny Gantz threatened on Sunday that what’s left of his Blue & White party would vote this week on the election of parliamentary representatives on the judiciary committee if coalition negotiations with the Likud do not progress.
Desperate to sign a coalition agreement as soon as possible, Gantz is clearly seeking to pressure Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud).
Israel’s Channel 13 News reported Saturday night that European Union (EU) officials have been warning Benny Gantz for weeks not to accept plans to apply full Israeli sovereignty to Jewish communities in the disputed Samaria and Judea regions – something Netanyahu repeatedly promised the public during the most recent election cycle.
Gantz, whose Blue & White party recently split into four separate factions over the question of establishing an emergency coalition together with Prime Minister Netanyahu’s Likud, has lost much of his negotiating power in recent weeks.
The State of Israel has been led by a caretaker government since the end of 2018, when the 20th Knesset dissolved. Since that time, three consecutive national elections have all resulted in a stalemate between Likud and Blue & White, creating an unprecedented political crisis with neither Gantz nor Netanyahu being able to form a coalition of 61 out of 120 lawmakers.
President Reuven Rivlin informed Benny Gantz on Thursday that his mandate to form a government had expired, following his failure to present a coalition by last Wednesday’s midnight deadline.
Rather than hand the mandate back to Netanyahu, however, President Rivlin applied pressure on the two largest parties to quickly establish a government together by initiating a 21-day period during which any 61 lawmakers can select any candidate to form a coalition. If that fails, the nation will head to a fourth election.
Polls are now showing that if Israel were to go to another election, Likud would trounce what’s left of Blue & White and Netanyahu would be able to form a coalition with the Likud’s traditional allies.
Netanyahu could also avoid both another election and a coalition with Gantz by forming a narrow government with defectors from Blue & White Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel, who’ve recently established their own Derekh Eretz faction, as well as Orly Levy-Abekasis of Gesher.
Seducing these three to his side would give Netanyahu’s nationalist block a narrow 61 member majority.
With or without Gantz, Netanyahu has sufficient parliamentary support for the unilateral annexation of West Bank Jewish communities, with roughly 68 lawmakers supporting the move.
On Saturday night, however, Netanyahu reiterated his support for an emergency government with Blue & White to fight the COVID-19 epidemic.
Since leaving the military and entering politics, Benny Gantz has been ambiguous in his positions on the “two-state solution.”
In March 2019, Gantz met with European envoys to Israel who, according to a tweet at the time from EU Ambassador to Israel Emanuele Giaufret, wanted “to hear his vision on EU-IL relations, Israel’s security and regional issues.”
In the meeting, Benny Gantz avoided endorsing the EU’s policy to divide Israel into two separate nation-states but clearly indicated that both Israelis and Palestinians “are here to stay” and that an arrangement must be found to solve the conflict.
Following the January publication of United States President Donald Trump’s “Deal of the Century,” however, Gantz vowed to immediately advance the plan following the formation of a new government.
While the Trump plan adheres to Washington’s traditional two-state agenda, it upsets European nations by allowing for some West Bank Jewish communities to be annexed into Israel.
Several reports have indicated that Washington wants a Netanyahu-Gantz government in Jerusalem in order to accept and implement the Trump plan.
This would also indicate an American preference for the nationalist Yamina faction to be excluded from the new coalition, as it’s the only party likely to put up resistance to the Trump plan.
Due to Yamina’s weak electoral showing in the last elections, with much of its base voting Likud in order to help Netanyahu defeat Benny Gantz, the prime minister can now easily manipulate his nationalist “allies” into the opposition by offering unattractive ministerial portfolios compared to what Yamina leaders are accustomed to receiving.
Making overly generous offers in negotiations with Blue & White while offering insulting portfolios to Yamina despite its loyalty as part of Likud’s nationalist block would indicate that Netanyahu’s moves are being closely coordinated with the Trump team.
According to Saturday night’s Channel 13 News report, EU officials had spoken to Melody Sucharewicz, Gantz’s foreign affairs adviser, and made it clear that Europe strongly opposes any unilateral annexation move that could undermine efforts to partition the country into two states.
The officials reportedly wanted Gantz to understand that the application of Israeli sovereignty in the disputed Samaria and Judea regions would have a negative impact on the EU’s relationship with Israel.
According to the Europeans, Sucharewicz said the Blue & White leader had to accept Netanyahu’s position on annexation because he decided to take a harder stance on other issues in the coalition negotiations. She also reportedly made assurances that Gantz would attempt to influence the annexation issue from within the government.
Israeli officials said Sunday morning, however, that the issue of Israeli sovereignty over West Bank Jewish communities is not currently being included in the negotiations between Likud and Blue & White to establish the government’s basic principles.
Given current polls, Benny Gantz’s clear support for both the Trump plan and Israel’s westernized judicial establishment, the pressure likely to come from Washington in the wake of the COVID-19 global crisis and Europe’s efforts to influence Gantz on annexation, Netanyahu – if he has any genuine interest in resisting partition – should avoid forming a government with Blue & White.
Two preferable options currently exist:
- A narrow 61 member coalition with Zvi Hauser and Yoaz Hendel of the Derekh Eretz faction and Gesher’s Orly Levy-Abekasis.
- A fourth election, in which both Likud and Yamina are polled to perform better than last time.
Israel needs to dump Gantz and then dump Netanyahu his new bed partner.