The factions comprising Israel’s Likud-led coalition voted unanimously on Monday to dissolve the Knesset and hold early elections, scheduled for April 9th.
This was likely Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu’s best move, considering the expected pressure United States President Donald Trump has been preparing to place on Jerusalem with its new Middle East plan.
The details of Trump’s plan have been closely guarded by the administration, but several leaks have revealed that the plan conforms to Washington’s traditional two-state agenda for the Land of Israel.
Although he began his term with public displays of friendship with Netanyahu, Trump had adopted a more aggressive tone in recent months, stating that he wants his plan published by the beginning of 2019.
For years, Netanyahu’s political opponents have accused the prime minister of harming Israel’s relationship with Washington due to his resistance to American pressure to partition the country into two separate states.
Appearing to enjoy a positive relationship with Trump while remaining loyal to Jewish national interests has been good for Netanyahu’s popularity among Israelis, despite the prime minister’s growing legal troubles. Therefore, the best political image for Netanyahu leading the Likud into elections would be that of a leader both close to the administration in Washington and strong on Jewish national issues.
Such an image is only possible, however, if Israel goes to elections before strong American pressure for partition forces Netanyahu to chose between his relationship with Trump and his commitment to the Jewish homeland.
Administration officials, including Trump himself, have said on numerous occasions that Israel would have to pay a high price for Washington relocating its embassy from Tel Aviv to Jerusalem.
By moving the US embassy to Jerusalem in such an ostentatious and divisive manner that played in the international press as a major Israeli diplomatic triumph over the Palestinians, the Trump team has fostered a political atmosphere in which Israel owes Washington big.
By diplomatically indebting Israel to his administration and beating the Palestinian political leadership into submission, Trump seems to believe he has successfully positioned both parties for a successful implementation of his plan. But early Israeli elections have thrown a wrench in Trump’s scheme by at the very least forcing Washington to postpone the plan.
According to a report on Channel 2 News Monday night, the Trump administration has indeed put its plan on hold in response to early Israeli elections. According to the report, the Trump team decided to delay the plan so as not to be seen as interfering in local politics.
Trump and his team likely understand it to be more beneficial for American interests to first allow Netanyahu an electoral victory and significant political mandate from the people before pressuring him to comply with Washington’s two-state agenda. What remains unclear is whether Netanyahu intends to submit to American demands once reelected or if he’ll seek further opportunities to delay Trump’s plan.
