How does a country know if it won a war?
Typically, there are metrics that can be examined such an increase in territory, control over resources or strategic locations, replacing a hostile government with a friendly one, achieving political goals that were not previously possible, and a sense of victory and euphoria among the public (contrasted with a sense of defeat among the enemy population).
Under these metrics, Israel has not won a war since 1967.
The Yom Kippur War, the First Lebanon War, Intifada I and II, the Second Lebanon War, and several rounds of fighting Hamas in Gaza have each resulted in some combination of loss of territory, erosion of control over important parts of the land, failed political objectives, and a growing sense of ambivalence.
This assessment of the last 50 years might come as a surprise to some. It runs counter to the popular narrative in pro-Israel circles where the country is seen as an undefeated regional power.
Unfortunately, the Jewish people have a sad habit of confusing survival with victory. Due to our long history of discrimination, persecution, and pogroms, we learned to think of survival as the best case scenario. But in reality, mere survival is not victory.
In 1967, Israel conquered Jerusalem, the West Bank (Judea & Samaria), Gaza, Sinai and the Golan Heights.
The Six Day War tripled Israel’s size and returned the Jewish people to the most important and sacred parts of our homeland.
Israel’s dramatic victory inspired a cultural revolution and a spiritual awakening. Jews around the world made aliya. The war instilled a level of national pride that the Jewish people might not have felt since Bar Kokhba briefly liberated Jerusalem 1800 years ago.
But in the last 50 years we have seen a chipping away at everything achieved in 1967. Israel has lost the Sinai, Gaza, and control over much of the West Bank. Israeli cities are regularly targeted by rocket fire. The public feels vulnerable and the conflict with the Palestinians seems unresolvable. At the same time, each war has seen Israel’s enemies grow more emboldened and more determined to destroy it.
The Simḥat Torah War might finally reverse the trend of the last fifty years. For the first time in a long time, Israel seems united by a common sense of moral outrage and likeminded determination to wipe out Hamas.
It remains unclear whether the country is positioned to achieve real victory. Israel lacks an independent military industrial complex that can resist American pressure. Israel’s leadership has failed to outline clear and consistent objectives. And many strategic and tactical obstacles remain, including the difficulty of fighting in densely populated Gaza, a network of hostile countries and terror organizations, rival geopolitical interests, and an antagonistic global media.
Despite the obstacles, I remain hopeful that the horrible atrocities Palestinians committed on Simḥat Torah will end with a massive win for Israel and the Jewish people. A permanent return to Gaza and a sense of real victory over Hamas could create a seismic impact similar to the Six Day War.
I believe Israel can emerge on top.
After fifty years, it’s time.
