Recordings of Blue & White leader Benny Gantz released Sunday night on Channel 13 News indicate that the former IDF chief of staff is willing to join a government headed by Prime Minister Binyamin Netanyahu (Likud), despite campaign promises to the contrary.
“Let’s say he [Netanyahu] wins the elections and a week later [United States President Donald] Trump puts forward a [two-state] plan and the people of Israel look at Benny Gantz and say help Netanyahu, because if not, [National Union leader Betzalel] Smotrich will kill the last chance [for a two-state solution],” said Gantz in a closed forum.
“So when I get to this moment, I will have to see. And then I’ll say to Netanyahu, ‘Excuse me, it’s without Smotrich, it’s Blue & White-Likud, let’s talk. A unity government between Blue & White and Likud.'”
According to most recent polls, the Likud and Blue & White lists together are expected to win roughly 60 Knesset seats – half of the 120-member Israeli parliament (a majority of 61 seats is necessary to form a governing coalition).
Despite mutually hostile campaign messages coming from both Blue & White and Likud, it’s likely that the two parties currently dominating the polls have every intention of forming a stable coalition together. Especially due to the fact that this is the government Donald Trump wants to see in Jerusalem.
Amos Yadlin, a former fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy and long-time supporter of American plans to partition Israel into two separate states, said in a February interview with Reshet Bet that he expects the Trump administration to influence what kind of government Netanyahu forms following April 9 elections.
“I think that Netanyahu, as an experienced statesman, understands that he is going to get the Trump plan not in the summer but immediately after the elections,” said Yadlin at the time.
“I think the Americans have reached the conclusion – and this is an assessment, not a statement of fact – that they need to influence what kind of government will exist in Israel after the elections.”
When questioned further by the interviewer about the practical implications of his assessment, Yadlin agreed that Trump wants to see Netanyahu form a coalition with Benny Gantz.
Gantz, whose Blue & White party represents Israel’s ruling class and military establishment, has been positioning himself as the candidate most likely to cooperate with Washington’s agenda to partition the country.
Netanyahu’s intention to form a government with Blue & White became evident during his efforts to convince the national-religious Bayit Yehudi and National Union factions to include the kahanist Otzma Yehudit party on their Knesset list.
While the prime minister’s push for a united national-religious-kahanist list was understood by most analysts at the time as being for the purpose of making sure no nationalist votes get wasted by small parties not gaining enough support to pass the 3.25% electoral threshold, Netanyahu was most likely pushing for the inclusion of kahanists on the national-religious ticket in order to make it easier for him to leave the entire block in opposition when forming his new coalition.
Despite promises of inclusion and top ministerial portfolios for Rabbi Rafi Peretz (Bayit Yehudi) and Betzalel Smotrich (National Union) in exchange for taking the politically toxic kahanistim on their list, Netanyahu likely understands that Trump expects his next coalition to accept American demands for partition, something neither Bayit Yehudi nor National Union would be able to accept. Bonding them with Otzma has likely tainted them enough to legitimize their exclusion from the next government and pave the way for the prime minister to form a coalition with Blue & White that would readily submit to Trump’s demands for partition.
The best method for avoiding a Netanyahu-Gantz government controlled by Trump is for Israelis to vote for small ideological parties on April 9. So long as smaller partners loyal to the Land of Israel are necessary for Netanyahu to maintain a stable coalition, the prime minister will be prevented from accepting Trump’s two-state plan.
